Last week, in the northeastern production areas, small vendors stockpiled goods and were reluctant to sell, and the willingness of grassroots-level suppliers to maintain prices and hold back from selling was strong, resulting in a stalemate in spot purchasing and sales. In Henan, the busy farming season is coming to an end, and grassroots-level suppliers are reluctant to sell high-quality goods, leading to an overall small volume of goods coming onto the market. Downstream markets still have doubts about the indicators of Henan rice, and most transactions are tentative purchases.
Last week, the acquisition standards of oil factories became stricter: some oil factories that are still purchasing have lowered their prices. With the major oil factories not yet entering the market, traders still need to maintain a cautious business approach towards oilseeds.
Prices have risen, and profits have increased. This will boost the enthusiasm of growers for planting and middlemen for processing. However, downstream demand and consumption are not strong. Most of the northeast rice from the early period has not actually been consumed, and the shipment volume from the Henan production area is also far lower than the market average for the same period, with a large amount of inventory still remaining in the production area. Although the Spring Festival is late this year, leaving sufficient time for pre-holiday sales, correspondingly, shortly after the holiday, there will be the choice of whether to store the rice in warehouses.
Judging from the performance of oil factories, their willingness to purchase is not strong. This year, the profit from imported peanut oil arriving at the port is lower than the cost of domestic pressing production, which has also led to a significant increase in imported peanut oil. However, according to the current consumption trend, the supply and demand of oilseeds are still pessimistic in the long run.
In terms of spot goods, we still hold the view that if there is still profit, we should sell them to lock in profits in advance. After all, business is a long-term endeavor, and profits and losses are not determined by a moment but by the long run. As for the futures market, after last week's sharp rebound, the short-term long-short game will still be relatively intense, and the long-term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the purchase progress of major oil factories and the performance of Henan rice coming onto the market.
