In the Henan production area, wheat sowing will be carried out based on soil moisture conditions following rainfall, with limited short-term supply pressure on the market. In the Northeast region, farmers' reluctance to sell was initially strong last week but subsequently weakened; however, hoarding by small traders provided price support. Henan rice quality exceeded expectations, offering good cost-performance for food-grade rice, while the upside potential for Northeast rice prices remains constrained in the near term.
Last week, arrivals at the limited number of operational oil mills remained severely congested, with quality standards progressively tightened, new contract signings suspended, and acquisition enthusiasm subdued. The opening status of other major oil mills will need to be monitored going forward.
In the domestic trade market, purchases are driven by immediate needs. Following the near depletion of prior Northeast inventories, rigid demand for replenishment has emerged, providing support to food-grade rice prices. Whether oil-grade rice prices can rebound still hinges on the acquisition activities of leading oil mills.
Spot prices face limited upside potential in the short term, with downside also constrained. On the futures side, there is a near-term need for a technical rebound, albeit with limited scope; the long-term pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. Maintain a range-bound trading strategy in the short term, while closely monitoring acquisition trends at major oil mills and the pace of spot supply increases in Henan post-harvest season.
